The autocratic appeal: nature, drivers and strategies

Expected Outcome:

Projects should contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

• Policymakers, public authorities and citizens at large are equipped with updated and exploitable scientific knowledge (including through SSH disciplines and fields) and understanding of the increasing autocratic tendencies, also in established democracies, including digital authoritarianism and erosion of human rights, as well as of the factors contributing to the rise of these tendencies (including the spread of disinformation in the public sphere, public disparagement of the rule of law, excessive use of police force, demonization of political opposition...).
• Public authorities, journalists and publics alike are provided with methods and tools capable of a) early warning and characterisation of autocratic tendencies, their drivers and strategies; and b) identifying tactics for resisting and combating them.
• Relevant actors (democratic governments, media, civil society organisations) are enabled to take more informed decisions when engaging and dealing with autocracies.

Scope:

In many parts of the world, democracies are under attack. Reports and indicators^[1] confirm that we are in an ongoing wave of autocratisation, with the number of autocracies increasing steadily since around the turn of the century. Instead of the announced “end of history” through the triumph of the liberal democratic order, authoritarianism seems to have gained appeal while the democratisation wave rolls back. The ongoing invasion of a democratic European country by an authoritarian regime is just one token, and consequence, of the current autocratisation wave.

How does autocracy work in the twenty-first century? Why does authoritarianism continue to spread, not only as an alternative to, but also within liberal democracy, where populist leaders frequently deploy authoritarian tactics and practices, weakening and eroding the rule of law from the inside, while continuing to gain strength and popularity? The growing acceptance of autocratic approaches in well-functioning established democracies is an under-researched phenomenon, and therefore scientific knowledge and understanding of those tendencies could contribute to the development of tools to counteract them. Social and psychological aspects, as well as philosophical and historical dimensions, will need to be considered for such an analysis. Historical experiences with autocratic regimes can shed light on commonalities and differences, so that the lessons from the past underpin current analysis and responses.

Resistance against autocratisation requires also further investigation. While not overlooking structural pre-conditions, patterns of autocratisation, as well as the motivations and strategies used by authoritarian actors, the research to be funded should also look at the actors resisting autocratisation and their strategies, investigating the modalities, actors and patterns of resistance against processes of autocratisation, so as to generate updated and exploitable scientific knowledge on this field. Could media literacy, culture, creativity and arts, for instance, play a role in stemming autocratic tendencies^[2]? What role is left to LGBTIQ people and religious, migrant or ethnic minorities, usually targeted by autocrats and populist leaders, in the resistance playbook against autocracies? Could the heteronormative and whitewashing activities of autocracies, visible in different domains such as culture and arts, entertainment industry, tourism or sports, be also resisted and counteracted?

Particularly striking, among those strategies to distract from persistent authoritarian practices, is the adoption of gender-equality reforms by some autocracies to boost their international image. While increased autocracy and anti-democratic tendencies go hand in hand with the global setback on gender equality and sexual and reproductive health and rights, proposals should not overlook the causes and consequences of autocracies’ pursuit of gender equality. This will shed light on the overall patterns and drivers of autocracies in the twenty-first century.

The resistance against autocratisation tendencies has also moved into the digital realm, in order to counteract the “digital authoritarianism”^[3] to which authoritarian and authoritarian-leaning leaders have resorted to. In the digital age, authoritarian power is built and sustained in transnational and globalized configurations that involve state and non-state actors, cutting across regime types. Via online censorship, internet shutdowns, digital surveillance and online disinformation and information manipulation, aspiring autocrats try to silence and disable access to information. Proposals should aim at disentangling the actor configurations engaged in digital authoritarian practices and investigate how these practices fit within the larger authoritarian playbook. In parallel, they should also focus on the challenges brought by resistance to digital authoritarianism, such as protests and investigative research and advocacy, enriching the analysis of the resistance playbook.

Proposals should investigate how to effectively protect democracies from autocratic tendencies and narratives. What means and strategies for protection are at the disposal of different stakeholders (public authorities, civil society organisations, media, citizens)? How can autocratic reforms be reversed and overcome without resorting to anti-democratic means (e.g. party bans, presidential executive orders, censoring) nor inducing large protests leading to increased polarisation?

Proposals could also look into the interrelations between the phenomena of science scepticism and science-denial, distrust in democracies and the autocratic appeal. Proposals should adopt a multidisciplinary, and actor-based, approach, integrating fields such as political science, law, sociology, philosophy, psychology, media and digital studies, gender studies, and history. Proposals should engage citizens, civil society organisations etc. in the development of their activities to ensure calibration and uptake.

The rise of autocracies and populisms in Europe is not an isolated phenomenon and needs to be looked at within a global context. Therefore, international cooperation is encouraged.

Proposals are encouraged to seek collaboration whenever possible with relevant projects selected under previous EU-funded calls, such as HORIZON-CL2-2022-DEMOCRACY-01-05, under Horizon Europe, or GOVERNANCE-03-2018, SU-GOVERNANCE-09-2020 and SU-GOVERNANCE-11-2018, under Horizon 2020. Clustering and cooperation with other selected projects under this topic and other relevant projects are strongly encouraged.

[1] For instance, those from the annual Democracy Reports published by the Varieties of Democracy Institute.

[2] The Annex to the Council Resolution on the EU Work Plan for Culture 2023-2026 (2022/C 466/01) states for instance that “cultural co-creation can authentically underpin and credibly communicate our European values, including artistic liberties and cultural rights, in large parts of the world, and thus help contain the reach of authoritarian systems.”

[3] Understood as the practices that rely on digital technologies to prevent critical debate and accountability demands to powerholders by disrupting information flows and free expression and/or by using digital technologies to surveil citizens, activists, civil society organisations.